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What Should Mexico Do Against The 'Bully'?





Trump needs to divert attention ... To cover the issue of Russian espionage, the bully will try to fuck our country

By Leo Zuckermann



Note from Tom - This article was published at the Exelsior on January 12, 2017. Spanish translation by Google.

January 13, 2017 "Information Clearing House" - The bully has threatened many inside and outside their country. It has clear incentives to start acting against Mexico by the huge asymmetry between the two neighboring nations. The United States is the most powerful economy on the planet. Mexico is an emerging country. EU has solid institutions and large capacity of government operation. Mexico is a fledgling democracy with training institutions and a government with operational problems. EU is the largest military power in the world. The Armed Forces of Mexico do not paint. In the United States he will be taking possession of a president who has the support of half of the population and a majority in both houses of Congress. In Mexico we have a president who goes out, very weak, extremely unpopular and increasingly embattled within and outside his party. Mexico is, in short, a tempting prey for the bully.

Now that Trump is coming to power amid a scandal with the intelligence community in your country, you need to divert attention and have a quick win: a quick victory that lets tell ya got, see how wonderful I am. Yesterday we saw in his press conference. A Trump was asked about the possible involvement of the Russians to support his campaign and he replied saying it will create many jobs in the US because it will put a border tax. It is very clear: to cover the issue of Russian espionage, the bully will try to fuck to Mexico. Throughout his business career, and as a candidate, Trump has been characterized as the typical bully "person using force or influence to harm or intimidate those who are weaker" (Oxford Dictionary). It is the typical burly of the college who fight with weaklings to prove he is an alpha male who always gets his way.

What should Mexico against a character like that?

Recently, political scientist Alberto Diaz recalled Cayeros game theory Nobel Economics Prize, Thomas Schelling: "Perhaps the most important insight that emerges from the work of Schelling is what is known as the problem of credible commitment. If a strategic actor wants to obtain a favorable outcome in a negotiation process, one of the fundamental problems is credibly establish a course of action that would be taken if the negotiation does not progress. Only if the strategic player can commit to a threat (not just empty words) of a course of action that clearly harm his opponent, you can dramatically improve profits reaching an agreement. "

What might be the credible threats against the Mexican government Trump bully?

Yes, Mexico is a much weaker EU country. But also it has some chips to play. In this sense, it identifies what the country has and that would hurt US if it removed. Actions that could complicate governance to the new president to have incentives to go fuck away.

I think, for example, in the damn money it is an issue when it stops flowing, everyone always hurts more in the Mecca of world capitalism. For each threat the bully to put a tariff on Mexican exports, we could threaten other taxes. ¿35% border tax on cars that General Motors produces in Mexico? Very good. In return: 35% tariff on beans we import US. Or how about a special consumption tax in supermarkets operated by US companies like Walmart? With credible threats, Mexico must send the message to the bully that he is not just waiting for the beating, but has allies who will defend because their interests could be affected.

So you have to think of all the chips that Mexico can play in their relationship with the US: the economy of the border, US firms operating here, Mexicans living in the US, Americans living in Mexico, the country's participation in the war against drug trafficking, cooperation in the prosecution of international terrorists, intelligence sharing, the relationship with China, and so on.

Schelling showed that to beat a bully, no credible threats to launch and be willing to carry them out, even if it means losing a lot, maybe everything. The challenge for Mexico, as Cayeros Diaz says, is "to force our opponent to grant favorable terms by threatening to everything." It is complicated, but failure to do so will bully us a monumental beating from January 20. Now that urges a quick victory to divert attention from their rinses with the Russians.

Twitter: @leozuckermann

Mexico will 'immediately' respond to any US border tax imposed by Donald Trump, minister says: "It is clear we need to be prepared to immediately neutralise the impact of such a measure," Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said in an interview on Mexican television.

Mexico - Growth forecast down, peso’s value down: Trump's tweets blamed for peso's decline. The peso has fallen more than 5% against the dollar since the year began, setting new lows before and during the U.S. president-elect’s press conference yesterday, dropping below 22 pesos to the dollar.



Mexico - More poverty due to gas prices: experts: The January 1 increase in gasoline prices could finish up creating a “nation-wide surge of impoverishment.” That was a warning issued by a group of specialists interviewed by the newspaper El Universal,




http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46216.htm

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